Here’s our view on this week’s data releases relating to the U.S. economy.
The most important economic data releases for the week commencing 22 July 2018:
- Existing Home Sales (consensus exp. 1.6%)
- Markit PMI (consensus exp. 56.0)
- House Price Index (Consensus exp. 0.3%)
- New Home Sales (Consensus exp. -2.8%)
- Durable Goods Orders (Consensus exp. 2.5%)
- GDP (Consensus exp. 4%)
- PCE (Consensus exp. 2.2%)
This week’s most important release is the preliminary Q2 GDP.
The headline PMI readings from Markit and ISM have been particularly strong during Q2 due to continued growth in demand. The last reading shows the quarter ending at the strongest performance since the third quarter of 2014.
The employment situation has also remained strong throughout Q2, leading to increased consumer spending and an overall positive outlook for the economy.
Exports have shown continued growth through April and May. Export growth in May rose sharply by 1.9% holding at record highs. Imports have remained virtually flat for the same period.
The current tariff situation is dampening the outlook for many businesses by creating uncertainty. However, it’s likely to be too soon for it to have had a material impact yet.
Based on the above points, the expectation of 4% for GDP seems appropriate.